As inflation continues to rise, the effects are seen all around the country, the world. Food prices, gas, transportation, supply chain, shipping costs are all going up. What isn’t going up you ask?
Why do upticks occur? A criminal uptick is a result and combination of illicit activity occurring right below the surface, but is being ignored and treated as if it is the norm. People just keep living their lives, not changing their behaviors, engaging in illicit activity. The uptick is bound to happen, it is on the way to happening, it is ramping up to happening, but no one was taking any precautions.
When there is a surge, there is something that is usually the trigger, that causes the reaction of many criminals to display fraudster behavior – red flags – predatory – manipulation – con games. When you least expect it, there will be an uptick in criminal activity.
How long does it last? An uptick in criminal activity can be short-lived – 2 or 3 months. While others will last longer, several months, about a year or two and another for a decade. The most devastating is when the uptick lasts longer than a decade. Upticks can exacerbate the fear mongering and illicit activity that criminals were already perpetuating in the community.
What would it look like? Police stations will be overrun with criminals, awaiting interrogation and booking of charges, there are numerous warrants for arrest, restraining orders, house arrests and other forms of detainment. They can’t keep up with the number of homicides. Jewelry stores hire more security. The governor may declare a state of emergency for NC. Marshall law goes into effect, if absolutely necessary. It may appear that the law is unable to keep up with the uptick in crime and that criminals are getting away with illicit activity. This couldn’t be further from the truth.
There will be influxes of people that come into neighborhoods, droves of people leaving due to the rising fear of crime. To the guy who says, “I’m shaking in my boots,” will find himself shuttered into the deepest recess of his home with a firearm.
Was this precipitated by an environmental trigger? Could this have been prevented?
Even a heatwave can cause a rise in emotions, such as rage. Criminals will make it unsafe to walk the sidewalks even during the daytime, which makes it difficult for people to go to work. Bills go unpaid. Foreclosures will be on the rise. A 50% increase in robberies across the state, a rash of home invasions, and larcenies may take our material possessions, jewelry, expensive technology, brand-name goods, cars and outdoor statues, ornaments and furniture. Although this fraud may last less than two months, nonetheless it is a fraud.
Another type of criminal uptick that occurs is in times of disease, pandemics, illness, house foreclosure and bankruptcy. This can cause the types of crime that are violent and lead to loss of life, going on for a year to a couple years. Investigations need to consider ALL evidence, witness statements and people’s experiences. A murder-suicide or murder meant to look like suicide, and look like an overdose need to weigh the options at the coroner’s office and consult with a forensic pathologist. Ensure there are no missing links and that there is consistency in objectivity of your team to eliminate harsh assumptions about what might have happened.
In a decades long criminal uprising, many of the above crimes can occur, however, now it is coupled with the gangs and organized crime taking completely over. We are a couple hundred years away from the 3rd scenario. Criminals will find opportunities to scam people when they are most vulnerable or have a little bit of money left. It is not uncommon that during a natural occurrence that fraudsters will target the weak and vulnerable, and those with lower or fixed income. We need to have systems in place to protect these people. Disaster, trauma and triage victims have needs that go far beyond what their current resources can give them and programs that can start immediately need to be made available.
Upticks can occur when:
1. “Perception of detection” is low. If criminals don’t think they are being watched they will attempt a crime. If they know that an area has less traffic by law enforcement officials, they will conduct crime there. If during a shift change, criminals will hide until the coast is clear and then commit a fraud or wrongdoing.
2. A “watchdog” that is nearby, leaves the state. One of the services I provide is prevention; many criminals know that I am tall with long brown hair. Their bosses tell them what to look out for, because she will send you back to prison. I have deterred over 4-5 dozen crimes thus far, maybe more, that I’m not aware of.
3. The crime itself and its “payoff is higher” than the punishment, if they are caught. Criminals risk exposing themselves when they commit a crime, and get others to further a crime.
Having enough law enforcement authorities to handle a surge is imperative now that there are more criminals entering the United States and illicit activity is rising. During the Covid pandemic, law enforcement were thrown under the bus daily. They were harassed constantly for protecting people and providing services to keep our communities safe. They were victims of the HCP effect. Many quit their jobs, retired early, had severance packages and as a result the police force was reduced substantially with less officers to handle 911 calls.
Although my Wrongdoer’s List is growing, I expect that even while out of town, a few more names will be added to the list. It will be a great relief to many to get violent offenders, even miscreants off the streets and back in jail. It is difficult to work and thrive in a community when criminal activity has suddenly escalated. Some people may even temporarily relocate to live with relatives until it dies down. The harsh reality is that with illegals pouring in, there are going to be criminal upticks, as evidenced by the Venezuelan gangs infiltrating one state and now in multiple states.
Most cities have breakfronts along the coast to prevent large waves from damaging the coastline. When a storm is imminent, people have already prepared ahead. Planning ahead makes it easier to recover from a storm. What do you do if there are multiple storms coming, without a break – all eventually resulting in a disaster? I don’t know how anyone could survive these kinds of storms – but they have. When a tsunami occurs, it is the result of an earthquake, volcanic activity and maybe even an asteroid hitting the earth. There can be subsequent damage from landslides and additional waves. It can be a war-like situation as we have seen with Hurricane Helene. Even weeks afterwards, they are having serious hygiene, sewage and water problems.
How is your city equipped to handled emergency situations? Will the Red Cross and other non-profits be ready to take action? The impact of emergency personnel makes a big difference so that families, children and pets are safe. How can we ensure that there is enough personnel? Will there be trauma and triage stations be available? Do we need to consider other options if other agencies are tapped out of money, people and resources? How will you keep your family afloat?
Again, this is not a scare tactic, it is a forecast from what the media has told us about crime in metro cities, how there are groups of people or cells in different states. These upticks don’t necessarily mean anything for that city; crime is just occurring.
PC: AdrianHancu
